Insights For Search Predicts Real Estate Collapse

In the past we have posted several times about how financial market traders can use relatively simple chart patterns involving higher-swing-lows and lower-swing-highs to successfully trade the stocks & commodities markets, options market and with other investing.

I was doing research on this powerful trading concept this morning and was thinking the incredible real estate market decline could be a good example of how well it can work. Therefore, I went to Google’s “Insights For Search” and searched for “MLS Listing” which is a widely used real estate term by home buyers and sellers.

This is the explanation of how Insights For Search works from Google: “Google Insights for Search analyzes a portion of world-wide Google web-searches from all Google domains to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you’ve entered, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. You can choose to see data for select Google properties, including Web search, Images, Product search, and News search.”

The Google Chart displays the most perfect long-term examples I have ever seen visually depicting the great power of swing highs and swing lows. Starting in 2004 the chart shows a series of 8 important swing highs and 6 major swing-lows. Of particular importance is the Dec 06 swing low which broke the old support level established Dec 05 by that major 2005 swing low. Once that old support level was broken in Dec 06 it conformed a major real estate bear market. The market is believed to be the most severely depressed real estate market of all-time, especially in areas of the U.S. such as Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida.

If you were buying/selling real estate the chart clearly shows starting in the year 2005 you should have been selling (not buying) real estate based on the important July 2005 swing-low (which you knew about at the end of August 05, and was confirmed Nov of 2005 which was the month the previous major swing-low was confirmed. The next series of 4 major lower-swing-highs which were in mid-2006, mid-2007, and early-2008 and 2009 confirmed the bear market was ongoing and getting even stronger.

The strong nationwide real estate decline started in late summer of 2005 in several Sunbelt states at the end of Aug 05 (at least according to my knowledge and statistics). However, it got underway a little later in other areas of the nation and the media often reports the bear market started during the year 2006. In my opinion this chart is one of the most picture book perfect and accurate examples of how powerful swing-highs an swing-lows can be. It is something you should always look at and take into strong consideration while trading the markets or investing.

A Money-Making Potential Futures Trading Method

This important commodity futures trading technique should help you greatly to trade the futures markets profitably (assuming it is applied correctly). This market structure trend direction prediction method is esentially a pattern recognition method which is basically simple but at the same time it’s powerful, with great potential for trading profits.

It’s the best way we have found to identify commodity market direction and define a bullishly or bearishly structured market. It is based on the observation that if you look at a bar chart of any market, you will see a bear market consists of mostly a series of lower highs and a bull market consists of mostly a series of higher lows.

These higher-lows and lower-highs are referred to by Commodity Traders Club as Swing-Lows and Swing-Highs, also known as Pivots, or Pivot-Points.

A swing-low is defined as a low day (or bar) with higher prices both in front and behind the low day (or bar), thus forming a swing-low. This swing-low must also be above the previous swing-low, thus forming a higher swing-low.

A swing-high is defined as a high day (or bar) with lower prices both in front and behind the high day (or bar) forming a swing-high. This swing-high must also be under the prior swing-high thus forming a lower swing-high.

The concept of buying higher swing-lows or selling lower swing highs is used by the most successful large futures traders. This concept has been used by them for a very long time. These traders don’t talk much about this simple but potentially profitable technique. Very few traders are familiar with this powerful, yet relatively simple trading technique.

Merely buying higher lows and selling lower highs by themselves can dramatically improve your trading results. You also need to know where to place a target so you can get out of the market once your profit objective is reached. You need to know where to place a protective stop-loss if the trade is wrong. For this we strongly recommend you use "Drawdown Minimizer Logic®" which is explained in detail in a prior CTCN Special Report. Drawdown Minimizer Logic is a mathematical method of sharply reducing drawdown based on past "adverse excursions."

A sample chart showing how to use swing-highs and swing-lows (a.k.a. market structure) to trade successfully is available on request.

The concept of only selling short providing a LOWER "Swing-High" has occurred, and only buying upon the occurrence of a HIGHER "Swing-Low" can be very profitable.

This method appears highly profitable when used on old charts, using a bit of subjectivity on the past data. Old charts and hindsight combine to make it look highly profitable. However, doing it in real-time trading is more difficult.

Selling, providing there are 2 or 3 lower days (or bars), instead of just one on each side of a high point qualifies as a more significant Swing-High, and can be very profitable. Of course, the reverse is true for a Swing-Low buy. The more days (or
bars) on each side of the swing day (or bar) is better to better define the Swing-High and Swing-Low.

The problem is the fact the more days (or bars) on each side there are, it’s likely more of the move is over by the time we can get into the market. Conversely, the fewer days (or bar-chart bars) of each side of the pivot bar means the move has likely not progressed far. However, it’s more likely to be a false or minor Swing-High/Low and consequently less profitable,
or an overall loser.

It’s fairly easy to identify and draw buy and sell arrows or dots at Swing-High and Swing-Low points on charts. However, doing it in real-time trading is not as easy as it appears on a back-data bar chart.

Nevertheless, the Swing-High and Swing-Low concepts (a.k.a. Market Structure) are in our opinion the best trend identification tool for trading the commodity futures markets successfully. It will "work" in any market, the actual market makes little difference. Of course, as always, trending markets make it work a lot better.

The concept of buying/selling Swing-Lows/Swing-Highs is simple and can be amazingly successful but needs to be combined with a good stop-loss method to give you protection on false signals. It’s recommended you use CTCN’s copyright "Drawdown Minimizer Logic®" to scientifically set stop-loss levels. "D.M.L." is used by CTCN’s Swing Catcher® technical analysis software system.