The Truth About Trading – Traders Article #1

There are many reasons why successfull commodities futures trading is so tough. Unfortunately, the majority of futures traders lose money … there are a lot of reasons for it. That’s the Bad News. However, the Good News is providing you can get in the small Winner’s Circle you too can achieve profitable trading. Then you may reap the rewards with the money lost by the many losing traders flowing to you and richly rewarding you for being a winning trader!

Since there are far fewer winning traders than losing ones, by being in the winning minority, you will be in a position to receive much greater profits than normally possible! This is especially true what with the great leverage involved with commodities trading, options trading and trading stocks on margin.

Read all about the major reasons so many commodity futures, stock market and options traders lose money (so you can avoid these problems). After reading this Special Report "The Truth About Trading and Trading Systems" Special Report, you may visit other areas of CTCN’s website and our links trading related links for more specific trading knowledge covering all aspects of commodity futures, stocks and options trading for traders & investors.

This Special Report was originally written by the Editor of Commodity Traders Club News a number of years ago. These common trading problems are just as evident (perhaps more so) going into the New Millennium as they were in the early 1990′s when this Report was originally written. The main difference in the report after over a decade of time is the fact the prices used as examples may be different. Actually, the eal price levels themselves make little if any difference to the validity of the discussion.

Also, originally Daily Bars were used for time-frame examples, as applied to daily bar charts. Since then daytrading is much more popular with commodity futures, stock market and options traders. Therefore, we have changed the word "Days" to the term "Bars," as in Bar-Charts. The Time Frames can by identified as inter-day (daily) bars, or intra-day tick-bars, like 1-min., 5-min., 30-min bars (bar-charts), etc. It really makes little, if any difference, as the concepts and theories are basically the same.

One reason for losing in the markets is the commodity futures, stocks or options trader is not really sure which time-frame or trend he is trading, or he is not matching his target objective price level to the time frames’ expected movement. Perhaps the trader wants to capture a move which he expects to take about 4-bars (or 4-days).

However, the volatility increases so the 4-bar (day) trend is actually over in 2 bars and he does not realize it and stays with the trade 2-bars too long. Thus, he gives up all or most of his profit, because he expected the move to last longer.

The opposite can occur … this happens when the volatility is low and after just 4 bars he gets tired of waiting for the expected move and exits the trade early, perhaps at a loss or small profit. Suddenly, over the next 2 bars the trend and move he anticipated happens; too late, as he is already out of the trade.

Of course, the 4-bar example above also occurs with traders expecting 2-bar moves which may occur in 1-bar, or vice versa. Also, 6-bar moves which end-up occurring over perhaps 8 or 9 bars, or vice versa, etc., and various intra-day time periods.

Another common occurrence, is the trader not using a specific stop-loss order. Thus, a small loss ends up as a big loss. For example, a trader believes a stop (loss) of $400 is reasonable, based on either technical analysis or on money-management rules. However, perhaps due to discipline problems the trader has, it’s not actually used.

Once out $400.00, he relies on HOPE the market will go back in his direction, and he fails to execute the planned exit point. Frequently, the market fails to move back in a profitable position and the trader is finally forced out of market with perhaps a huge $2,000 loss, instead of the maximum $400 loss anticipated.

Note: More often than not, it seems once the trader who over-stayed the position finally decides to get out, the market frequently reverses the exact day (or next day) he got out! That seems to be an uncanny and almost unwritten law!

The stop-loss order is used, but the stop is not sufficiently precise. More frequently than you can imagine, the stop is hit by just a very small margin. For example, the market may be at 54.60 and a long position stop is placed to sell at 52.50. The market goes down to 52.47 and then reverses back to beyond 54.60 very quickly after stop was barely hit.

Sometimes the stop price of 52.50 may end up being the EXACT low price for that swing . . . very frustrating and upsetting when this occurs! Why does this happen so often? Because many times the stop-loss price level happens to be a support area based on a trend line, gann angle, old bottom or old top formation, fibonacci numbers, a chart price gap, or just simply an obvious natural stop-loss area, such as a whole or even number.

Thus many other traders use the same logic to place stops at or near the same level. The market gets drawn to that area because that’s where orders are sitting that the market (and Floor Traders) wants to get filled. Because of those orders resting in that obvious place, the market price actually moves to that area, almost like magic or magnetic attraction.

Failure to actually place a stop-loss order with your broker (unless you are always closely following the market using real-time intra-day data, when you are in an open trade) will result in the great likelihood of you losing all or most of your money (eventually) due to one or a couple huge losses caused by the price continuing to drop after going thru your stop-loss price. Sooner or later (probably sooner) it’s almost certain to happen, if you don’t use and place stop-loss orders to you.

There is an exception for daytraders who employ real time market quotes and are closely watching their real-time quotes and price charts continuously. Sometimes a daytrader may achieve better overall trading success by using so called mental stops vs. actually placing the stop-loss orders with his/her commodity broker. More on that later.

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Commodities Futures – Selecting A Broker

Commodities Futures can be a very rewarding investment and venture, but selecting the right broker is going to be a very critical aspect. You need to ensure that the broker you are working with is extremely knowledgeable and will be available when you need him/her. By default, the commodity broker more than likely will be working for a firm, so you should ensure that you do the necessary research on the brokerage firm in advance before making a selection of which firm to work with.  To do this you can review the National Futures Association to get some background information on the firm.

If you are finding too many complaints against the firm, then that should raise a red flag, and you should consider moving on to another company. Of course you will always find a few complaints from users who may not have been pleased with their results from trading, but if the complaints are too many when compared to other firms, then it is definitely time to move on to another company.

Your goal is to find a long term relationship with a company and broker that you can trust.  The integrity of your broker will be of utmost importance, since you will be trusting them with your account. Take the time to thoroughly ask questions when talking with the broker. You’ll need to establish a good rapport, and comfort with your broker. Do not be afraid to ask tough questions.

Of course one of the best ways to avoid using a firm that does not have a proven track record is to go with established companies and not start-ups. This is not to say a start-up brokerage company is bad, but for your own peace of mind, it is perhaps best to choose a company that has been in business at least five years and who have a proven track record of excellence.

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