Simple Way To Predict Market Turning Points

A Simple Way To Predict Market Turning Points (and impress your friends) – originally written by Bob Pelletier (President of CSI – CSIdata.com

This brief report is designed to advise those who may have an interest in systems, methods, or services which predict market turning points far into the future. If you have been solicited by any firm that does this, you may gain some important insight into this area by reading on. Whether you plan to purchase such a service, system or secret is your personal choice. CSI has no preference for one commercially available procedure over another. We simply wish to point out facts that may be helpful.

If I were to tell you to “Pick any date in the future, for any commodity, and I will show you the next turning point that will occur relative to that date.” You might think I’m crazy, or strongly doubt my claim. The truth is, that anyone can do this within an accuracy of, say, three days about 70% of the time, or within four days 80 to 90 per cent of the time.

The secret depends upon how one defines “turning points”. Suppose we define intermediate market swings or turning points to occur about 25 times per year, or twice per month. Since there are about 250 trading days per year, this allows for one turning point per 10 days. With a dart and a calendar into the future, the dart will hit some seven day time interval (the day hit plus or minus three days) each time it is thrown. If turning points occur, on the average, once every 10 days, then there is a 70% chance my dart will include a turning point within three days.

Additionally, if I knew that last week there was a definite low, my next turning point will be a peak. I’m not interested in 1997; I may not live that long. I can only make money if I can bet on the next immediate turning point for various cycle lengths.

There is not enough room in this Newsletter to show how market turning points can be predicted with more reliability, but it is possible to provide an unbiased estimate of the next peak and the next trough for each given predominate cycle period. Using a method which treats peaks independent of troughs can produce a non-regular period between peaks and troughs (a more realistic behavior) for future market cycles.

Before spending your hard-earned funds on any system, be careful to discover what you can do under purely chance conditions without it.

For more information about commodity futures trading, CSI market data or trading systems. please visit Webtrading.com or click-on the picture below…

Warren Buffet recommends Index Equity Funds

One more web site (a small site so far) is now online. However, we need more relevant site content for http://indexequityfunds.com/ – We are looking for index funds, annuity, investing, options and stock trading personal feedback to expand the IndexEquityFunds.com web site. If you or someone you know can make some good and relevant content (which does not need to be professionally written) we can add to the site (with credit to the author and a link -if wanted). Your assistance will be appreciated.

Index Equity Funds are an excellent way to invest for the long-term. Warren Buffet talked about index equity funds on a recent Today Show interview with Matt Lauer. We have that segment of the “Today Show” interview located at our indexequityfund.com web site, found about 1/3 of the way down the main-page. You can visit our new website by going to Index Equity Funds now, or clicking-on the image below. Thank you.

Non-US Address Results in WIPO Loss Protection!

The FirstQuote.com WIPO Case Decision (domain kept) and its significant issues & deciding factors:

In our view, the most significant aspect of this case and perhaps in every other case ever presented to WIPO is this statement extracted from the case below: Moreover, the Respondent is based in Hong Kong, SAR of China, while protection of the Complainant’s 1STQUOTE-Marks and the Complainant’s business are limited to the United States of America.

That certainly is an incredibly powerful reason to have your domains registered at a non-USA address!

More… the respondent denies the complainant’s contentions. Respondent alleges that the phrase “First Quote” is the featured tagline for thousands of insurance, financial and legal websites and can be heard in numerous ads from agencies asking to “come in today for your first quote”. Upon the Respondent’s allegations, the disputed domain name is comprised of a generic term, which may be used in hundreds of ways, and the Complainant is attempting to leverage the domain name from its owner by using the UDRP forum to reverse hijack the domain.

The Respondent further states that there are 10 active trademarks for FIRST QUOTE in the US, that there is no proof that the Complainant is the sole owner of and creator of the phrase “first quote” and that the disputed domain name was first registered on January 15, 1997, 6 years prior to the Complainant’s claim of “first use” of the 1STQUOTE-trademarks and even before the Complainant was established, which also shows that the phrase had already been popular before complainant tried to claim it.

The Respondent further argues that he never intended to act in bad faith. Furthermore, according to the Respondent’s allegations, the Complainant has no website, brand, domain name, or anything else associated with “first quote” (rather than 1STQUOTE), and the Complainant does not even own the domain name <1stquote.com>. The Respondent also requests the Complainant should be fined for Reverse Domain Hijacking.

With regard to the Respondent’s bad faith registration and use, the Complainant contends that the Respondent registered the disputed domain name with actual or at least constructive notice of the Complainant’s 1STQUOTE-Marks and was using the disputed domain name in bad faith primarily to intentionally attract for financial gain Internet users to the Respondent’s web site by misleading and confusing Internet users who are searching for the Complainant’s website but, merely, misspell or mistype the brand name of the Complainant’s 1STQUOTE on-line application processing service. Respondent has denied these assertions and provided evidence of substantial third parties’ use of the term “first quote”, including the provision of services similar to those of the Complainant.

It seems to be more likely than not to this Panel, the Respondent acquired the disputed domain name, as he contends because of its meaning and because of the substantial third party use of the underlying words, and not with a view to the Complainant and its 1STQUOTE-Marks. The Complainant’s 1STQUOTE-Marks are not used identically in the disputed domain name but with a different spelling, and they enjoy less than average distinction, if any distinction at all, as they are made up of two generic words which are commonly used together.

Moreover, the Respondent is based in Hong Kong, SAR of China, while protection of the Complainant’s 1STQUOTE-Marks and the Complainant’s business are limited to the United States of America.As a result, on the balance of evidence, the Complainant has failed in this Panel’s assessment to prove that the disputed domain name was registered in bad faith, i.e. with the Complainant in mind.

We would appreciate any comments you have about trademarks and WIPO cases – which feedback we could also add to our web site since we are actively looking for personal feedback about trademark issues to expand the web site, which site you can visit by going to Internet Intellectual Property now, or clicking-on the image below. Thank you.

Is It Still Possible to Register Domains with Value?

Is it possible to freshly register domain names of value (which may not necessarily make you rich) but have some value, and can make you at least a bit of money?

Rarely a week passes where we do not stumble upon at least a few unreg’d names which I am sure would get natural traffic plus search traffic too. We can’t possibly register them all (there are simply too many good ones) but when we do register the available domains there are often typein visitors to the temporary webpage right away.

Anyone else run across good targeted keyword unregistered domains lately?

Business Success Advice from Bob Parsons

Just ran across an excellent video presentation by Bob Parsons (GoDaddy) about how to be successful in business. It’s really worth a look, espcially Bob’s interesting advice about never answering your own phone!

Insights For Search Predicts Real Estate Collapse

In the past we have posted several times about how financial market traders can use relatively simple chart patterns involving higher-swing-lows and lower-swing-highs to successfully trade the stocks & commodities markets, options market and with other investing.

I was doing research on this powerful trading concept this morning and was thinking the incredible real estate market decline could be a good example of how well it can work. Therefore, I went to Google’s “Insights For Search” and searched for “MLS Listing” which is a widely used real estate term by home buyers and sellers.

This is the explanation of how Insights For Search works from Google: “Google Insights for Search analyzes a portion of world-wide Google web-searches from all Google domains to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you’ve entered, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. You can choose to see data for select Google properties, including Web search, Images, Product search, and News search.”

The Google Chart displays the most perfect long-term examples I have ever seen visually depicting the great power of swing highs and swing lows. Starting in 2004 the chart shows a series of 8 important swing highs and 6 major swing-lows. Of particular importance is the Dec 06 swing low which broke the old support level established Dec 05 by that major 2005 swing low. Once that old support level was broken in Dec 06 it conformed a major real estate bear market. The market is believed to be the most severely depressed real estate market of all-time, especially in areas of the U.S. such as Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida.

If you were buying/selling real estate the chart clearly shows starting in the year 2005 you should have been selling (not buying) real estate based on the important July 2005 swing-low (which you knew about at the end of August 05, and was confirmed Nov of 2005 which was the month the previous major swing-low was confirmed. The next series of 4 major lower-swing-highs which were in mid-2006, mid-2007, and early-2008 and 2009 confirmed the bear market was ongoing and getting even stronger.

The strong nationwide real estate decline started in late summer of 2005 in several Sunbelt states at the end of Aug 05 (at least according to my knowledge and statistics). However, it got underway a little later in other areas of the nation and the media often reports the bear market started during the year 2006. In my opinion this chart is one of the most picture book perfect and accurate examples of how powerful swing-highs an swing-lows can be. It is something you should always look at and take into strong consideration while trading the markets or investing.

Trading Method for Trading Stocks & Commodities

If there is one single trading technique which can best lead to profitable trading of stocks and commodities it would probably be the concept of using swing highs and swing lows, which is based on relatively simple chart patterns.

The swing high and swing low trading method is based on the observation if you look at a chart of any market you can easily see a down-market consists more of a series of lower swing highs and an up-market is mostly a series of higher swing lows (which swings are also known by the trading term pivot-points).

A swing-high is a high day (or price bar) with lower bars both in front and behind the high bar, thus forming a swing-high. This swing-high must also be under the prior swing-high which results in a lower swing high.

A swing-low is low day (or price bar) with higher bars both in front and behind the low bar), thus forming a swing-low. This swing-low must also be above the previous swing-low, which becomes a higher swing-low.

Buying or selling swing-lows and swing highs are used by many successful traders. This concept has been used by them for a very long time. Simply buying higher lows and selling lower highs by themselves can improve your overall trading results, especially when combined with other sound trading principles, including use of powerful drawdown minimizer logic stop-loss techniques.

Predicting Monday Prices Based on Friday Price

Does Friday’s Stock, Options or Futures Price Action Predict Monday’s Price Movement?

Is it possible a market trading methodology or trading system can be profitable based on a simple trading method involving Friday’s prices to successfuly predict the opening price on the following Monday?

This trading pattern does not appear every single week but it’s often reflected in the financial markets. And when it does appear, the following Monday’s prices tend to perform in a predictable manner, possibly leading to trading profits got you.

The trade setup uses the opening and closing prices on Friday to trend in the same direction. Interim price movements and trend directions are not relevant for this trading method.

Stocks and commodity price openings don’t need to go too far past the first several ticks, as a price-gap which quickly reverses is sufficient for the purposes of this trade method, but that’s the direction the closing price needs to trend.

Monday’s opening price is likely to first start trending in the same direction at the opening of tradding vs the pattern of the two prices Friday moving in the same direction as each other, then Monday’s open is likely to start trending in the same direction imediately after the opening occurs.

Do your own technical narket analysis of old market price action based in one-minute bar-charts or real-time tick-charts to view the price action and weekly market trading patterns. You will see it sometimes does not work all weeks but does appear to be better than 50% reliable.

This simple but interesting trading method may work particularly well involving commodity futures trading in addition to stock market and foreign exchange market trading of the Forex Futures markets. Iy has not been tested in the futures optiosn maret but there is a good chance it will work there too.

Simple but Excellent Commodity Trading Method

It involves buying so called higher swing-lows and selling so-named lower swing-highs. Also known as pivot-points. A definition of these swing-highs and swing-lows is appropriate here: A swing-high is a high bar with lower bars on both sides the bar. Whereas, a swing-low is a low bar with higher bars on both sides.

The more lower bars to the left of a swing-high the better. The more higher bars to the left of the swing-low the better. That makes them more significant and presumably more powerful swing points. However, only one bar on either side is still acceptable (but two or more to the left are usually stronger trade signals).

My trading methodology requires two (or more) consecutive swings, with the second one being a higher swing-low vs the preceding one for a buy. Alternately, the second swing-high needs to be to be a lower swing-high than the preceding swing for a sell signal.

The actual going long trade entry takes place on a buy-stop 2 ticks above the high price of the last bar (the bar following the swing-low pivot bar), for a buy. The short trade signal takes place on a sell-stop at 2-ticks under the lowest price of the last bar (the bar following the swing-high pivot bar), with a sell.

Your stop-loss order is placed 6-ticks under the lowest price of the last swing-low bar on a long trade. The short trade stop goes 6-ticks above the highest price of the last swing-high bar.

It’s possible for you to make excellent commodity futures profits from using this simple, but very effective trading methodology. Authored and Copyrights by David Green. All Rights Reserved.

Pros & Cons of using a Foreign Domain Registrar

Domain name registrar and parking provider Fabulous is a top-notch choice and industry leader with excellent prices, benefits and great support. However, the liability avoidance reason mentioned by Rick at Rick Latona’s site for using a non-US based registrar such as Fabulous.com seems to be a double-edge sword in that I have been told by a well known domain attorney that it could be a big negative. The reason it can become a major issue is apparently due to the dispute rules the plaintiff can file a lawsuit either where the registrant lives *or* where the registrar is located. If they know you are in the US and the registrar is in Australia (in the case of Fabulous.com) and they are a large corporation they may have a law firm or business presence (possibly an office) in AU where they could file suit there instead of in the US thus making you travel all the way down-under to AU for court appearances and also a need for you to hire an AU IP Attorney at high cost.

It’s Always Tough Giving a Buy Price or Sale Price

One of the the most frustrating things about the domain name and website business is that in the normal course of business (even if the name or its website is not listed for sale) there will be occasional unsolicited offers to buy your domains and/or websites but most everyone has great reluctance to make the first move regarding a sales price.

In all likelihood, the typical great reluctance by both buyers and sellers to name an agreeable price results in the large majority of web site or domain-name potential transactions failing.

A prospecive buyer does not want to give a specific offer because of two reasons:

1. The prospective buyer is thinking the offer may be more than sellers expected price so seller will accept it right away and he would pay more than was needed.

2. Conversely, buyer is thinking his proposed price is too low so seller may act negative and not respond at all or else act insulted replying with a sky high price of say $50,000 for a domain he really would normally sell for $5,000 or less as an example.

A potential seller does not want to give the buyer a specific buy-it-now price due to two reasons (this is especially applicable if the buyers full identity is not known):

1. Seller may be thinking the accepable buy price is lower than what buyer was really willing to pay. Thus buyer will accept the price and domain or website would get sold for less than its potential price.

2. If proposed buy price is perceived as too high by the potential buyer it may turn buyer negative and buyer will nt reply at all. That would be unfortunate since seller may in reality accept much less than the quoted high price but never has a chance to negotiate the price since buyer already walked away or went on to an alternative name for sale or a newly registered domain.

Not really sure what solutions there may be to this ongoing problem, which in-effect stands in the way of a great number of sales. Anyone know a way to avoid this?

Achieving Success at 9 AM thanks to 09 09 09

Today was a very special date being 09 09 09 but to make it even more unique I am able to add one more 09 (AM) to make it 09 09 09 09 which is real cool (in more than just the interesting numerology way).

I wished real hard for personal success today starting at 9 AM and that praying for business and personal success actually happened with a great achievement and victory this morning, which I can’t go into detail about at this time (but will do so when more appropriate).

Anyone else have something good happen today 090909?

Lower Domain/Website Income vs Higher Costs

Most everyone in the domain name and website development industry is reporting sharp declines of from 65% to as much as 85% in Pay-Per-Click (PPC) Advertising Revenues compared to a few years ago. The income declines appear to go well beyond the overall decline in the economy, with several other factors involved in the big declines.

Making matters even worse is the future scenario of sharply higher cost domain name yearly renewals since it looks like the domain registry operators will be able to soon charge whatever they want for yearly name renewals, with non-fixed and non-regulated pricing looming on the dark horizon.

The double edge sword of low income combined with expected greater costs could easily put an end to the domain name industry as we now know it. Comments on this bleak outlook are welcome…

Amazing Method for Reducing Trading Risk of Loss

This Special Report reveals an amazing method we can teach you to reduce risk of loss when trading the financial markets by staying in good trades, but trading with small stop-loss orders to avoid large trade losses.

Always using a stop-loss order is normally critical to commodity futures trading success. The most famous stocks and commodities trader of all time, Mr. William D. Gann, said repeatedly in his books and commodity course that it’s always critically important to place a stop-loss order on each trade you make. That way bad signals and losing trades will not likely wipe out your trading capital, thanks to your stop-loss order giving you some protection.

Most trading systems and trading methods require fairly large stop-loss orders. That is because stops are frequently based on one or more of the following logical (but frequently ineffective) trading methodologies:

Place a stop-loss order at a pre-determined percentage of the true daily trading range. For example, if the true daily range or average of recent true ranges (High minus Low, plus any gap between prior close and today’s low or high) is say 83 points, then the stop may be set at perhaps 120% of that range or about 100 points. In the Deutsche Mark that equals $1,250.00 stop, plus any price slippage..

Another method is by placing a stop-loss just under the last swing-low or pivot-low. Note: A swing-low is a low point with higher prices on each side. For example, if last swing-low was at 7650 and price moves up for a few days to say 7750, then triggers a buy signal, stop may be placed just under the low price of the low day, perhaps at 7649. Unfortunately, that example means a potential risk of over 100 points ($1,250.00+). Of course, the reverse is also applicable on a sell position, with the stop being just above swing-high.

Using a moving average penetration as a stop, i.e., place a stop on a long trade at just under a simple moving average, possibly based on a 9-day average. The trouble here is that if we entered long at about 77.50, by the time the moving average is penetrated by the price, the moving average may be well below the market (due to its inherent lag-time), at 7600 or so. That results in a stop-loss at 7599 stop, and a risk of about $1,900.00.

One more stop-loss trading approach is to place a stop order under last week’s lowest price. This method may be even riskier because last week’s low may be 7550. That requires a stop of 7549 or lower, and a risk in excess of 200 points or over $2,500.00.

Another simple and a completely unscientific trading approach is known as a "money stop." It involves setting an usually arbitrary stop based on either the maximum money you wish to lose, or stop based on a reasonable sounding number of points or dollars.

As an example, psychologically you may not want to lose more than $1,000 so you set your stop at a price equaling $1,000 loss potential. That number is arbitrary, so it may turn out to be either too small or too large, depending on the volatility and the market involved. For example, perhaps it’s too small a stop for T-Bonds when they’re volatile or too large when they are dull. If using the $1,000 stop-loss in the Corn market or another low-risk low volatility market, it may be too large a stop to use.

By now you may be asking if there’s a better way to set market stop orders more scientifically and with better reliability and accurately, thus enabling me to keep risk low and still avoid getting "stopped-out" needlessly and stay in the potential winning trade?

The good news is a big YES, there is a way to do much better. By using Webtrading’s "Drawdown Minimizer Logic." Drawdown Minimizer Logic is an amazing and proven way to set stop-loss levels very tightly to guard against large losses, yet keep the stop scientifically and strategically placed just far enough away to prevent premature hitting of the stop-loss; thus keeping you in most trades instead of being stopped-out at a loss. Don’t worry if this methodology seems too technical, because it’s basically simpler than it appears.

You may be wondering if our confidential “drawdown Minimizer logic” stop-loss methodology will be disclosed? Yes, we are willing to reveal this secret ingredient to commodity futures trading success to traders who sign-up to our news feed. That is how you can soon learn about our incredibly valuable information which can lead to making-money trading the financial markets…

In the upper right area of this web-page you will see a signup area which says “Sign up to receive breaking news as well as receive other site updates!” Simply add your email address and click go. We plan to reveal the details about how you can access the information in the near future, so please be patient as you wait. And by the way, I promise your email address will be kept confidential, never shared with anyone, or published anywhere and you will not receive too many emails.

It Sure Seems Difficult to Get Affiliate Referrals

Here is a transcript of a recent live chat session with a well known domain name firm who offers developed sites either free or for a monthly fee and has what sounds like a lucrative affiliate program. For the benefit of those who don’t know, an affiliate program is where you get commission based on the income of the person you referred. The affiliate income you receive comes from the company and not out of the revenue of the referrals account (according to the terms of all ther affiliate program agreements I have seen).

Support: Hi, how may I help you today?

Me: Hi, regarding your affiliate referral program. I have HEAVILY marketed it with probably 100’s of forum posts and our affiliate link being on each post in the signature area, plus marketed it in my Blog too which gets good and relevant traffic but no affiliates are reported by you under me from all that time, work and energy I put into it.

Me: Are you sure your 90-day Cookie which identifies those who clicked the link for the next 3-months is really working?

Support: Yes, as far as I know. I can double check yours. Ok, please hold. Ok, I see your referral link is working fine. But I noticed that not all of your websites have the “develop your domains” affiliate link placeholder on the site.

Me: Right, because it detracts from the web site in my opinion.

Support: And you are using the correct referral link which is this number (example 12356789)?

Me: Yes, that number is accurate.

Me: No one could have possibly marketed your affiliate program more than myself recently what with 100s of forum board posts and many other posts including website blog articles but not even 1 sale from all that time, work and energy! My one and only affiliate was from personal level marketing I did with a close friend.

Me: What a complete waste of my time this has been. I will not be offering the affiliate code in blogs and forums anymore since it is an exercise in futility ASSUMING the COOKIE really is working for 90-days.

Support: Well, it could take some time for you to see the results

Me: Why?

Support: It would be difficult to predict any kind of average time

Me: If someone wants to sign up for an account why would they delay?

Support: Well, all new sign ups do need to go through an approval process

Me: But that takes a few days and I have been marketing your affiliate program for a much longer time (about 2-months) so that it makes no sense (to not even get one referral with all that effort).

As a side note I can say I did not market this affiliate program for only monetary purposes as I sincerely felt these sites were excellent and had great potential and in fact still feel that way today. That is a reason I marketed the affiliate program as much as I did since I felt other domain investors could also use this web site development service well. However, with that said, any revenues from the affilliate program would have been most welcome, especially in view of substantial declines in my other income sources.

The hard to believe poor results affiliate code was immediately removed in my signature lines at the 3 forums and I stopped the marketing of their service (at least from the affiliate aspect) since this entire affair and this support chat made little sense to me. Unfortunately, I suspect non-crediting (for whatever reason) of affiliate referrals may be more common than you would expect.

Next Page »