All You Need is 10,000-mo Typein/Uniques MiniSite

Re MorganLinton.com’s ProDomainer Article Sidenote: Of course if you have a domain name with a nice steady stream of type-in traffic (over 10,000 uniques/month) a MiniSite is all you need to make money.”

It’s somewhat ridiculous to point that out since of course it’s a given from such heavy typein traffic but also the fact there are so few domainers with such powerful typein domains.

Personally I consider even 30-typeins a month to be reasonably good with 10,000-month going to a single domain being extremely valuable and very very rare. I doubt if there are more than a couple readers of this site or your blog who have such high traffic typein domains and they are on the Cayman Islands 7-mile beach now instead of reading this.

Long Term Declines are Likely in Domain Traffic

It appears the great success of Smart Phones combined with the strong impact and heavy usage of Apps has already done considerable damage to typein traffic along with browser-based search traffic too. Things will no doubt get worse as the mobile market expands even more.

In addition, once the new unlimted .tld’s start resolving that too in all likelihood will have a negative impact on traffic going to .com and other extensions since so many large websites will have their own tld and people will start simply typing-in that new tld instead of doing a search or typing in dot-com, etc. A random example is websurfers who will go to LasVegas rather than Lasvegas.com or bother to do a search for other las vegas websites.

This is all very distressing and disturbing news for domainers in general and especially for typein traffic domains and websites (including sites which rely heavily on search-engine traffic). Unfortunately these new development look like generating domain/website traffic from typeins and search is well past its peak of a few years ago and is quickly becoming a long-term bear market.

All of that negativity to traffic/revenue potential combined with ever increasing renewal fess (i.e. just discovered my Moniker account .com renewals went up to a high $8.99 today) makes it quite likely more and more domaine operators will let much of their portfolio expire or possibly even exit the business starting this year.

Nobody on The Road… Nobody on The Beach…

Written by Frank Schilling

There is something about the end of summer that feels so very similar every year. The end of summer, of fun and frivolity always comes at the same time and echoes, like the lyrics from a Don Henley song. Aptly named “Labor Day” is like a starter’s pistol at a collective social race that has been programmed to begin through years of grade-school, college and university. Everyone around the world does it. Fighting the urge to be productive in September is like swimming against an unstoppable tide of human behavior.

A different more fearful tide of behavior continues to play out before us. People have come to the realization that the economies of the World are poised to get worse before they get better. Apparently printing more money to paper-over problems doesn’t work! I certainly believe that to be the case. Much of our economy today is powered by the Ponzi-scheme of government dollars recycled to the private sector, then recycled back to government. We have America, Greece, Portugal, Spain and others on food stamps. There are 20 million people in the US working for the Government, basically paying no tax. A government employee’s tax bill is just a return of cash back to those productive members of society who gave it to them in the first place. We have millions more on government social security and Medicare – all draining the system – taking more than they contribute. This is playing out in Europe, in America… everywhere.

I believe the US is facing difficulties, orders of magnitude greater than its recent financial downgrade. I noticed it in Malibu of all places, where for the first time I saw not only a dead-head sticker on a Cadillac, but also men, holding signs, begging for cash, at Cross-Creek and PCH (a celebrity studded shopping district North of LA)! There were many more regular-looking people and even women standing on corners throughout Los Angeles (not just the usual corners) with “need-help” signs in hand. The usual corners near freeway ramps had many more people standing on them, begging. Storefronts were closed and some stores had downsized even on Rodeo Drive.

here is a strange inflation and parallel deflation occurring. Certain people are charging more for goods and services and chalking it up to inflation, while earnings fall or disappear for the industry in which they participate. Millions of people like you and I have not come to terms with the difficulty ahead, wrongly thinking things will soon get better. There is a great re-organization upon us where whole industries are going away. Cash is being printed by governments to prop up unsustainable routines which just shouldn’t exist anymore. The no-confidence vote of the world’s productive members of society is reflected in the price of gold which has soared since I suggested you buy some back in 2004. Those who followed my lead nearly quintupled their money.

Gold will be 3500 – 6000 an ounce in a few years – either that or it will stay at 2000 and the DOW will fall to 5000. You can diarize that remark as you did my last. Gold of course is just another human behavior which men fight at their peril. Just a shiny metal without an intrinsic use… just like the tide of back to school, back to work mindset… and just like the rush for .com names which work just as well as .nets .info’s and .whateveryouwant. To return things to a domain context, no amount of new TLD’s are going to diminish the value of the human behavior gold standard – .com .. used.cars will not knock 20k in value off usedcars.com. It will increase the value of usedcars.com and set a permanent floor to its value. Make those words as you did my gold remarks in 2004, fight them at your peril.

Millions will be made and lost in the New TLD casino, on both sides of the table. We are creating a machine to enrich strangers, with a nebulous and unknown outcome for the participant. Most at the table agree it’s better to have tried and lost than to never have tried at all. I am not 100% sure I have the right answer for you, but it could be that the biggest winners at the new TLD table are those who buy the best SLD’s in each space. One recurring theme of all namespaces is that a TLD is only as good as the best SLD’s in it. If you buy the best second level names in each space you can do better than the registry itself. The .COM space is a good example. The top 10 million generic domain names in .com are worth more than Verisign. Only 5-10% of all the names registered in .COM are generic or meaningful in any way whatsoever.

Newer spaces such as .INFO have seen even fewer good names with perhaps 1% of the .INFO space being worthwhile to anyone whatsoever. I could see just a few thousand good names per string in almost all new TLDs – a collective few million worth anything whatsoever to anyone.. and the demand fall-off being almost TOTAL after that.. Unlike .com which has “some” low dollar demand for $250 multiword strings, there will be ZERO demand for longer strings in new extensions. Better to be the registrant of the best SLDs than to embrace the clerical misery and competitive marketing-hell of running the registry itself. Only the deepest pocketed and most brave should walk down this college fraternity hazing gauntlet or roll the dice at this table of monsterous uncertainty.

The Internet Traffic business is at its annual low as I write these words. People are gone fishing and the economy’s ad dollars sit on the shelf in-wait, soon to be applied to dormant adwords accounts. The back to school rush will see millions of new, refurbished and toolbar-free laptops fire up in unison. Type-in traffic will spike. Ad dollars will spike. We will build to a crest through January, propelled higher by the Black-Friday shopping season. It all kicks off with Labor Day and we will be there soon enough.

My hope is that the upstream ad-marketplaces (Yahoo and Google) will redistribute those returning dollars, pari-pasu, to the “partners” in the syndication engine-room, who are helping to move the ship forward. If they decide to skim off the top to “make their quarter” at the expense of those assisting below, I see genuine discord for the ad-marketplaces and difficulty keeping traffic next year. Like an abused spouse, Tina is two blows from stepping out of the limo and walking away from Ike once and for all. If the upstreams reap all the returning autumn gains at the syndication channel’s expense, I see platform abandonment ahead. I’ve heard it from too many partners and in too many quarters for this not to be the case.

More than in previous years, this is a season to be the squirrel – to gather nuts for the cold winter ahead. It’s a great autumn to “take the deal” and build a cash cushion to see you through in case this winter and the economy are colder than in previous years. I am advocating that all our partners save more of their earnings and build as big a cushion as they can muster. Higher renewal fees for .com names in January will bring discontentment in February as registrant margins get squeezed. Upstream partners will need to recalibrate their payouts to those partners doing the lifting downstream to compensate for the name renewal price increases, or risk losing their partners to alternative and unorthodox monetization implementations promising more revenues.

I expect that “pressure to pay more” on upstream ad markets will intensify because of the new TLD process. That process will put negative pressure on existing SLD name sales, which have been a crutch for low PPC rates over the past 2 years. Early next year, name buyers will wrongly question the value of existing .com/.net names against a barrage of press extolling the virtues and vices of new TLDs. The trifecta of a more difficult economy, lower traffic revenues from the Verisign price increase and lower name-sales due to the sideshow of the new-tld process will cause pressure on re-sales. It would be an Orwellian Animal-Farm moment to see Google and Yahoo crushing the numbers this February as the domain-industry plays the role of the horse in the engine room, turning the wheel for less and less revenue. I just don’t see that working any longer. So the takeaway for you all is to sell more of everything NOW and save it, then have that cushion so you can buy some courage to change partners or try unorthodox methods if you need to next March.

Despite that gloomy prognostication of what could come I remain hopeful that we have seen the collective low for traffic payments in 2011. The market and fixed expense reality simply dictates that type-in-traffic is worth more, and it is not equitable that any middleman takes a majority of a product which is produced. There are flat-rate shops buying traffic at higher levels. Walmart is a buyer. Target is buying traffic directly during the Black-Friday period. It’s a short curve of logic for those monster retailers to buy that traffic all year long. Walmart buys everything from Sundried Cranberry snacks and Garden hose directly through their buying center in Bentonville. I have been there and have seen that process in-action when I sold Walmart video game joysticks and gamepads 15 years ago. It is illogical that domainers wouldn’t eventually line-up at this same location with blocks of tens or hundreds of millions of unique monthly visits, if the existing paid-search marketplaces get so greedy that the model of selling to those marketplaces becomes unsustainable.

In the end, the method which we use to implement domain name type-in traffic is not under our control. Upstream traffic marketplaces need to decide how much volatility they want to tolerate in their keyword marketplaces and how much value they ascribe to it. A healthy channel simply dictates that those who generate the traffic, need to ride along in the success, otherwise the market becomes volatile and ultimately, undone.

Traffic/Revenue Doesn’t Matter in High Value Sales

A question we have always wondered about is why at Flippa.com it seems buyers place great value on website traffic and revenue stats, with little if any intrinsic value for the domain-name itself?

However, with the just announced big sale by Rick Schwartz (DomainKing) for 4 million dollars plus stock for the two domains property.com and properties.com, their traffic and income was in all likelihood not a factor in the sale.

In fact, that issue was probably not even discussed, let alone a real consideration with the offer and purchase. Obviously, properties.com and property.com traffic/income was insignificant vs the very high sale price.

20k visits but revenue so low can’t buy a Starbucks!

Since the start of the major decline in parking page revenue over the past 4 years or so there have been several examples of poor performance from some major players. However, the current performance of a relatively obscure provider with a big company behind them is almost impossible to believe the stats could be true!

For example, look at the stats in the screenshot below, keeping in mind the incredibly bad stats are coming from several high quality websites, with more than 70% direct navigation (typeins), from mostly US traffic. The traffic was from ads placed on several high value websites, including a few health and wellness sites with very valuable well targeted domains, plus a popular social media site which gets substantial typein traffic.

With substantial and nicely targeted quality traffic of almost 20,000 visitors over the past 6-days the ads on those websites did not even earn enough money to buy a single cup of Starbucks coffee. Isn’t that amazing! Needless to say, of course the ads have now all been removed.

Sometimes Surprisingly Poor Results from Tweets

Based on my own Tweeting I have discovered we usually get from 5 to 15 visits going to the link in my Tweets, within 15-minutes of the Tweet time, based on having just a little over 1,000 followers.

However, sometimes after 15-min of third-party Tweets (who link to my site) from websites who have far more followers (ranging from about 5,000 all the way to 35,000), there are only 5 or 6 real visitors to the linked site.

That compares extremely poorly vs my own Tweets which typically have approximately double the visits to the link, but coming from far fewer followers.

This makes little sense to me. Anyone have some thoughts on how that scenario is possible?