Long Term Declines are Likely in Domain Traffic

It appears the great success of Smart Phones combined with the strong impact and heavy usage of Apps has already done considerable damage to typein traffic along with browser-based search traffic too. Things will no doubt get worse as the mobile market expands even more.

In addition, once the new unlimted .tld’s start resolving that too in all likelihood will have a negative impact on traffic going to .com and other extensions since so many large websites will have their own tld and people will start simply typing-in that new tld instead of doing a search or typing in dot-com, etc. A random example is websurfers who will go to LasVegas rather than Lasvegas.com or bother to do a search for other las vegas websites.

This is all very distressing and disturbing news for domainers in general and especially for typein traffic domains and websites (including sites which rely heavily on search-engine traffic). Unfortunately these new development look like generating domain/website traffic from typeins and search is well past its peak of a few years ago and is quickly becoming a long-term bear market.

All of that negativity to traffic/revenue potential combined with ever increasing renewal fess (i.e. just discovered my Moniker account .com renewals went up to a high $8.99 today) makes it quite likely more and more domaine operators will let much of their portfolio expire or possibly even exit the business starting this year.

Death Threats via a DDOS Attack

Hi all, Some of you may or may not be aware that for the last 10 days my blog, Whizzbangsblog.com, has been down due to a consistent DDOS attack. The reason for the attack was directly due to my articles on people that are committing fraud in the domain industry by pumping bad traffic through domains, purchasing parking accounts and stealing good domain owner’s identities. This behaviour is rampant and is costing us all millions of dollars.

Initially the fraudsters struck at my blog and then moved the DDOS to my company (which is OK BTW), to michaelgilmour.com and now finally back to whizzbangsblog.com. They have been communicating to me via the referral URL which in the last instance was the following:

173.245.53.77 – - [06/Sep/2011:00:13:51 +1000] “GET / HTTP/1.0″ 200 316 “http://lastwarning-shutdown-yourblog-or-die-withyourparklogic.com/” “Mozilla/5.0(compatible;MSIE 8.0;Windows NT 6.0;InfoPath.1;.NET CLR 3.0.04506.648;.NET CLR 2.0.50727)”

It’s the first time in my life I received such a threat and upon speaking with the police they indicated that I should take it seriously. I have now contacted CERT (Computer Emergency Response Team) in both the USA and Australia, Victorian Police, Federal Police, FBI (still trying to find the right person) and I have now been told by the police to contact the Secret Service Cyber-crime area in Washington.

In one of my blogs I posted an email that had been circulating that related to purchasing parking accounts and the response was incredible. Many domainers didn’t know about this activity and why it was bad for their reputation and the industry they operate in. My guess is that many of them stopped selling accounts and this has caused the fraudsters some problems…..hence the DDOS.

Our industry is under threat from unscrupulous scumbags and I have no intention in bowing down to threats like this. I do not negotiate with terrorists that hijack an industry that I love and steal from friends that I greatly respect. I would ask this of my fellow domainers. Please support me in exposing these people and feel free to publish this article – get it off my server ASAP. It will mean a brave stand and I will not feel any ill will for those of you who do not feel you are able to fight this fight.

I will keep posting here as long as possible in the meantime you can see me updating facebook.

Warmest Regards,

Michael Gilmour

Guest Article, written Seot 8, 2011

Nobody on The Road… Nobody on The Beach…

Written by Frank Schilling

There is something about the end of summer that feels so very similar every year. The end of summer, of fun and frivolity always comes at the same time and echoes, like the lyrics from a Don Henley song. Aptly named “Labor Day” is like a starter’s pistol at a collective social race that has been programmed to begin through years of grade-school, college and university. Everyone around the world does it. Fighting the urge to be productive in September is like swimming against an unstoppable tide of human behavior.

A different more fearful tide of behavior continues to play out before us. People have come to the realization that the economies of the World are poised to get worse before they get better. Apparently printing more money to paper-over problems doesn’t work! I certainly believe that to be the case. Much of our economy today is powered by the Ponzi-scheme of government dollars recycled to the private sector, then recycled back to government. We have America, Greece, Portugal, Spain and others on food stamps. There are 20 million people in the US working for the Government, basically paying no tax. A government employee’s tax bill is just a return of cash back to those productive members of society who gave it to them in the first place. We have millions more on government social security and Medicare – all draining the system – taking more than they contribute. This is playing out in Europe, in America… everywhere.

I believe the US is facing difficulties, orders of magnitude greater than its recent financial downgrade. I noticed it in Malibu of all places, where for the first time I saw not only a dead-head sticker on a Cadillac, but also men, holding signs, begging for cash, at Cross-Creek and PCH (a celebrity studded shopping district North of LA)! There were many more regular-looking people and even women standing on corners throughout Los Angeles (not just the usual corners) with “need-help” signs in hand. The usual corners near freeway ramps had many more people standing on them, begging. Storefronts were closed and some stores had downsized even on Rodeo Drive.

here is a strange inflation and parallel deflation occurring. Certain people are charging more for goods and services and chalking it up to inflation, while earnings fall or disappear for the industry in which they participate. Millions of people like you and I have not come to terms with the difficulty ahead, wrongly thinking things will soon get better. There is a great re-organization upon us where whole industries are going away. Cash is being printed by governments to prop up unsustainable routines which just shouldn’t exist anymore. The no-confidence vote of the world’s productive members of society is reflected in the price of gold which has soared since I suggested you buy some back in 2004. Those who followed my lead nearly quintupled their money.

Gold will be 3500 – 6000 an ounce in a few years – either that or it will stay at 2000 and the DOW will fall to 5000. You can diarize that remark as you did my last. Gold of course is just another human behavior which men fight at their peril. Just a shiny metal without an intrinsic use… just like the tide of back to school, back to work mindset… and just like the rush for .com names which work just as well as .nets .info’s and .whateveryouwant. To return things to a domain context, no amount of new TLD’s are going to diminish the value of the human behavior gold standard – .com .. used.cars will not knock 20k in value off usedcars.com. It will increase the value of usedcars.com and set a permanent floor to its value. Make those words as you did my gold remarks in 2004, fight them at your peril.

Millions will be made and lost in the New TLD casino, on both sides of the table. We are creating a machine to enrich strangers, with a nebulous and unknown outcome for the participant. Most at the table agree it’s better to have tried and lost than to never have tried at all. I am not 100% sure I have the right answer for you, but it could be that the biggest winners at the new TLD table are those who buy the best SLD’s in each space. One recurring theme of all namespaces is that a TLD is only as good as the best SLD’s in it. If you buy the best second level names in each space you can do better than the registry itself. The .COM space is a good example. The top 10 million generic domain names in .com are worth more than Verisign. Only 5-10% of all the names registered in .COM are generic or meaningful in any way whatsoever.

Newer spaces such as .INFO have seen even fewer good names with perhaps 1% of the .INFO space being worthwhile to anyone whatsoever. I could see just a few thousand good names per string in almost all new TLDs – a collective few million worth anything whatsoever to anyone.. and the demand fall-off being almost TOTAL after that.. Unlike .com which has “some” low dollar demand for $250 multiword strings, there will be ZERO demand for longer strings in new extensions. Better to be the registrant of the best SLDs than to embrace the clerical misery and competitive marketing-hell of running the registry itself. Only the deepest pocketed and most brave should walk down this college fraternity hazing gauntlet or roll the dice at this table of monsterous uncertainty.

The Internet Traffic business is at its annual low as I write these words. People are gone fishing and the economy’s ad dollars sit on the shelf in-wait, soon to be applied to dormant adwords accounts. The back to school rush will see millions of new, refurbished and toolbar-free laptops fire up in unison. Type-in traffic will spike. Ad dollars will spike. We will build to a crest through January, propelled higher by the Black-Friday shopping season. It all kicks off with Labor Day and we will be there soon enough.

My hope is that the upstream ad-marketplaces (Yahoo and Google) will redistribute those returning dollars, pari-pasu, to the “partners” in the syndication engine-room, who are helping to move the ship forward. If they decide to skim off the top to “make their quarter” at the expense of those assisting below, I see genuine discord for the ad-marketplaces and difficulty keeping traffic next year. Like an abused spouse, Tina is two blows from stepping out of the limo and walking away from Ike once and for all. If the upstreams reap all the returning autumn gains at the syndication channel’s expense, I see platform abandonment ahead. I’ve heard it from too many partners and in too many quarters for this not to be the case.

More than in previous years, this is a season to be the squirrel – to gather nuts for the cold winter ahead. It’s a great autumn to “take the deal” and build a cash cushion to see you through in case this winter and the economy are colder than in previous years. I am advocating that all our partners save more of their earnings and build as big a cushion as they can muster. Higher renewal fees for .com names in January will bring discontentment in February as registrant margins get squeezed. Upstream partners will need to recalibrate their payouts to those partners doing the lifting downstream to compensate for the name renewal price increases, or risk losing their partners to alternative and unorthodox monetization implementations promising more revenues.

I expect that “pressure to pay more” on upstream ad markets will intensify because of the new TLD process. That process will put negative pressure on existing SLD name sales, which have been a crutch for low PPC rates over the past 2 years. Early next year, name buyers will wrongly question the value of existing .com/.net names against a barrage of press extolling the virtues and vices of new TLDs. The trifecta of a more difficult economy, lower traffic revenues from the Verisign price increase and lower name-sales due to the sideshow of the new-tld process will cause pressure on re-sales. It would be an Orwellian Animal-Farm moment to see Google and Yahoo crushing the numbers this February as the domain-industry plays the role of the horse in the engine room, turning the wheel for less and less revenue. I just don’t see that working any longer. So the takeaway for you all is to sell more of everything NOW and save it, then have that cushion so you can buy some courage to change partners or try unorthodox methods if you need to next March.

Despite that gloomy prognostication of what could come I remain hopeful that we have seen the collective low for traffic payments in 2011. The market and fixed expense reality simply dictates that type-in-traffic is worth more, and it is not equitable that any middleman takes a majority of a product which is produced. There are flat-rate shops buying traffic at higher levels. Walmart is a buyer. Target is buying traffic directly during the Black-Friday period. It’s a short curve of logic for those monster retailers to buy that traffic all year long. Walmart buys everything from Sundried Cranberry snacks and Garden hose directly through their buying center in Bentonville. I have been there and have seen that process in-action when I sold Walmart video game joysticks and gamepads 15 years ago. It is illogical that domainers wouldn’t eventually line-up at this same location with blocks of tens or hundreds of millions of unique monthly visits, if the existing paid-search marketplaces get so greedy that the model of selling to those marketplaces becomes unsustainable.

In the end, the method which we use to implement domain name type-in traffic is not under our control. Upstream traffic marketplaces need to decide how much volatility they want to tolerate in their keyword marketplaces and how much value they ascribe to it. A healthy channel simply dictates that those who generate the traffic, need to ride along in the success, otherwise the market becomes volatile and ultimately, undone.

Traffic/Revenue Doesn’t Matter in High Value Sales

A question we have always wondered about is why at Flippa.com it seems buyers place great value on website traffic and revenue stats, with little if any intrinsic value for the domain-name itself?

However, with the just announced big sale by Rick Schwartz (DomainKing) for 4 million dollars plus stock for the two domains property.com and properties.com, their traffic and income was in all likelihood not a factor in the sale.

In fact, that issue was probably not even discussed, let alone a real consideration with the offer and purchase. Obviously, properties.com and property.com traffic/income was insignificant vs the very high sale price.

20k visits but revenue so low can’t buy a Starbucks!

Since the start of the major decline in parking page revenue over the past 4 years or so there have been several examples of poor performance from some major players. However, the current performance of a relatively obscure provider with a big company behind them is almost impossible to believe the stats could be true!

For example, look at the stats in the screenshot below, keeping in mind the incredibly bad stats are coming from several high quality websites, with more than 70% direct navigation (typeins), from mostly US traffic. The traffic was from ads placed on several high value websites, including a few health and wellness sites with very valuable well targeted domains, plus a popular social media site which gets substantial typein traffic.

With substantial and nicely targeted quality traffic of almost 20,000 visitors over the past 6-days the ads on those websites did not even earn enough money to buy a single cup of Starbucks coffee. Isn’t that amazing! Needless to say, of course the ads have now all been removed.

Sometimes Surprisingly Poor Results from Tweets

Based on my own Tweeting I have discovered we usually get from 5 to 15 visits going to the link in my Tweets, within 15-minutes of the Tweet time, based on having just a little over 1,000 followers.

However, sometimes after 15-min of third-party Tweets (who link to my site) from websites who have far more followers (ranging from about 5,000 all the way to 35,000), there are only 5 or 6 real visitors to the linked site.

That compares extremely poorly vs my own Tweets which typically have approximately double the visits to the link, but coming from far fewer followers.

This makes little sense to me. Anyone have some thoughts on how that scenario is possible?

Yahoo: All .US Country Code Names Poor Quality!

A very interesting subject on the-web is that ALL .US extension domains are banned by the Yahoo feed under the title of Quality Block. Several pay-per-click parking firms who use the Yahoo PPC feed have confirmed that to be correct, and said yes, Yahoo thinks every single .us domain must be poor quality and thus are banned. Isn’t that an incredible wide-ranging assumption to make!

It’s been an issue for at least 2 or 3 years from what we understand. It appears both Yahoo and some of the parking firms who have been given our .us domains to monetize using the Yahoo feed in-effect keep it a secret and allegedly simply assumed we would not notice the fact we always get zero income from our dot-us country code domains.

It’s amazing there has been basically no discussion we have seen about this serious issue. It would seem like a major internet player like Yahoo allegedly hating its own country-code domain extension to such a degree as to ban them all from pay-per-click revenue should be major news and discussed at length in the media. Instead, it appears to be stonewalled with nothing but silence from most everyone, including the media, other domain blogs and the forums.

Property.com/Properties.com vs Buying a New TLD

Breaking News: Rick Schwartz sells Property.com & Properties.com for $4 million plus stock. Of course, congrats to Rick on his latest amazing domain sales.

That great domain name sale got me seriously thinking about something I have been dwelling on for a long time, which is the potential impact of the new gtlds, which will be coming online as soon as 2012.

What I mean by that is that since the .property and .properties tld extensions can be purchased for $185,000 each (plus other fees and expenses) it makes the 185k cost look like a great bargain (at least to me), compared to spending millions on the dot-com domains.

Think about this for a minute, would you prefer to own property.com at a cost of a few million dollars, or buy your very own ‘property’ extension for less than 10% of the dot-com price? At this time, some of you may say property.com is best but I feel that view is mostly because so few realize the great impact the new extensions will have in the future. In fact, I predict they will eventually dominate over other tld extensions.

A reason I say that is I am sure most all large and possibly mid-size corporations (maybe even some wealthy individuals) will buy their own extension. After a while I feel it is likely they will decide to brand under their own extension instead of the dot-com.

For example, assuming Ford buys .ford and also owns ford.com, don’t you believe one day they will switch their online brand to .ford and simply redirect ford.com to .ford? Keep in mind, dot-ford should be able to resolve stand-alone, depending on the server dns setup, so you can just typein “ford” to your browser and it will resolve. Same is true for “property” and “properties.”

So again, why spend millions buying the dot-com when you can buy the word without the .com to the right of the dot for 185k? Also, keep in mind, that cost is expected to drop sharply in a few years, well below 185k.

An excellent example of the benefit of going right-of-the-dot vs left-of-the-dot is the acronym domain-name “POS.COM” (a somewhat obscure acronym intended to mean “Point Of Sale”) which has me wondering why anyone today would offer almost a million dollars for pos.com when for “only” 185k they can as an alternative possibly purchase the .POS extension.

Another example is cars.net which sold for a staggering $170,000 last month according to dnjournal.com. The reason I say ‘staggering’ is since it’s a .net extension it will lose a good share of its traffic to .com from typeins. That’s a big reason dot-net is considered to be such a poor choice for a business and branding is difficult.

Wouldn’t it make much more sense for the buyer of cars.net to spend just 10% more and apply for the ‘cars’ tld? Can you imagine the powerful value of owning .cars tld vs cars.net! There really is no comparison when you consider how a business could easily brand themselves as ‘cars’ and tell everyone just typein the word ‘cars’ (and forget about adding .com or .net).

One more example is “StockBrokers.com” that recently sold for $185,000, which by coincidence is the exact same price as buying .stockbrokers extension.

Think seriously about this, wouldn’t you really prefer to tell websurfers to just typein “stockbrokers” to reach your website vs the longer “stockbrokers.com” There are many other examples where the cost of buying their own tld extension would have a lower cost vs buying the high-priced dot-com domain, and also make more sense for overall branding purposes.

As a cool monetary benefit, and option, you will also be able to sell to the left-of-the-dot names for extra income to enable other brokers to buy a domain such as TopBroker.StockBrokers.com, for example, plus you can sell unlimited numbers of other domains to the left-of-the-dot since you own the right-of-the-dot. Isn’t that interesting!

Does Domain Development Help Domain Value?

Assuming a minisite page and ad content is targeted to the domain keywords I don’t believe a minisite will be an overall negative. With that said, a site will also likely not increase the domain value. However, a benefit to the minisite is your domain can slowly grow its traffic thanks to SEO work but a parked page will not.

As far as domain revenue goes, a parked page should perform better but that assumes the domain get the same traffic numbers and the parked page also gets organic and typein traffic. If not, site development is much better. As a side note, we have never had an end-use (a non-domainer) potential domain buyer ever ask about its website, revenue or traffic stats. Even if we offered to give that information the buyers did not want to look at it. It appears only domainers and resellers ask those kind of questions.

A major negative and significant issue with potential sales of developed websites (even a very small site i.e. 1 or 2 pages) is when a potential domain buyer goes to the URL and sees an active website he may assume since it is a site it’s likely not for sale (but it sometimes is for sale). Therefore, the possible buyer (end-users in particular) may think why bother inquiring, and quickly exit the web-page to go looking for a different domain, or try hand registering an alternative extension, or going with a slight name variation.

For those working on developing all their names thinking development will help sales, this may come as a surprise. Stephen Douglas earlier had said “Maybe, the “DOMAIN FOR SALE” link needs to be double-sized and bold!. Oh no, now you got me paranoid! Thanks a lot, David.”

However, there is still a problem Stephen because an obvious Domain Name For Sale announcement can make the visitor a bit uncomfortable seeing it and also may be an overall negative regarding potential PPC clicks too (and have an even greater impact on any product sales a site may be hoping to get).

Massive Dilution caused by New Domain Extensions

We have been saying for years (starting when the new extension plan was first announced a long time ago) the new domain-name extensions will bring about massive dilution in the name space and overall negativity to the value of the current major domain extensions.

In a few years the cost of buying your own extension could easily decline significantly belowr the current high cost of almost 200k, possibly all the way down to the 3 figure range where most individuals and small businesses could also afford to buy their own domain extension.

A huge benefit to owning your own domain name extension is only the extension could be typed-in (depending on how the DNS is setup) and the visitor would go right to that website based on the extension only. A few examples are by typing in Ebay you would not need to typein Ebay.com, or typein FreeMLSlisting and no need to typein FreeMLSlisting.com (and potentially zillions of others too).

Suspended RSS Feeds are Welcome to Reapply

The Afternic.com blog and popular blog DomainGang.com were suspended for ongoing spamming of our non-commercial and advertising-free DomainingRoulette.com RSS News Feed.

They are welcome to contact us if they would like to be unsuspended.

Eric Borgos Interview by Michael Cyger

We can highly recommend this interesting and educational interview with Eric Borgos conducted by DomainSherpa.com and expert interviewer Michael Cyger: Eric Borgos interview

How is Local News Related to Your Success?

Watching the local news, that’s a great use of your time, presented in a one hundred percent problem format.

No one watching the news cares your sale numbers are up, or that Wendy got a promotion, or that Jordan got straight A’s on his report card. Good news does not sell; therefore it’s omitted.

Rather, what you get is distorted, negative information about two or three percent of the people affecting those who view it in the worst way. If you watch an hour a day of problems, everyday for years, you become problem oriented.

Do you think local news adds or detracts from your sales skills? How about your business skills? How about your life skills? The news is popular because most people that watch it lack focus or direction, or are miserable and looking for something or someone more miserable than they are – I guess to make them feel better.

Still think the local news is important, How many of you can look in the mirror and say “I’m successful today, I am where I am today , because of the local news.”

Here’s a wakeup call: Let’s say you have been watching the news for half hour a day for the past year. That’s 7.5 full 24 hour days you spent watching problems. In five years that’s 38 full 24 hour days . In terms of a 40 hour work week, that’s 23 weeks every five years.

Now imagine the possibilities if you diverted that energy in a positive direction. Imagine what you could do with that time, and accomplish in that time, if you put it to productive use.

As a quick example, if you instead spent just 15-minutes a day reading and learning about a topic of interest, in one-year you could be an expert in that topic and help your business, or family.

Which do you think is a more powerful use of your time: Watching other people’s problems or investing in yourself and creating plans and solutions for you or your business.

The next time you say “I don’t have enough time” substitute the phrase with “I don’t choose to spend my time in that manner.” It’s closer to the truth. The real truth is you’re not investing your time in the most important people in the world – You and your family or your own business.

Take your hour a day and convert it into a positive action or learning for yourself, your job, your business and your family. At the end of the year, you will have captured more than 15 full 24-hour days building your future.

Reprinted with permission of Adam Dicker

News Served On Your Plate, 24X7

Is it a Good Idea to Use WordPress vs HTML?

Personally. I much prefer standard html sites vs WordPress sites. However, with that said, I must say a well designed WP site certainly can look great and be successful. Blogs and forums in particular do extremely well using WordPress where richness of features and live user interactivity are highly desired features, but with that said, I still like HTML vs Woprdpress by far for making “regular” (non-blog non-forum) new sites.

After working for years with regular html before using WordPress at first I found the WordPress learning curve to be huge and taking vast amounts of time. One of the toughest aspects was the look and feel of a WP site which is difficult to control and tricky to modify vs much easier to change html sites. Heavy spam or bot posts of WP sites are also a negative issue which is always looming but that is not a big problem involving standard html sites.

In addition, I do not think WordPress security is that good judging by some WP sites I know being hacked in the past. Speaking of security, the ongoing need to frequently update the version number is also an unwanted hassle, especially since the automatic upgrade capacity can and does sometimes fail.

In fact, you always need to worry your old WP version may not be fully compatible with the latest version and if not your site will go down when the upgrade fails and the old site will then stop functioning due to the upgrade failure. Been there and done that too. Even backups are a big hassle since there are extra steps involved to copy the data base but with standard html the database can be easily copied using simple FTP at the same time as regular htm files, with no other steps needed.

As far as search engine optimization is concerned I suspect WP and HTML are roughly equal in that regard. However, with that said, it’s much easier to do search engine verifications with html sites since it can be quite confusing trying to determine where the needed search engine verification codes are inserted into WordPress sites (because of the .php file names and confusing directory and folder structure, but with HTML and .htm files that’s all quite basic by comparison.

In my opinion, a big reason WordPress is so popular are the vast numbers of people who say they are WP programmers and designers (it must be easy to become one), or sell products that only work with WP, including many web-developer special offers and Clickbank products. Recently I decided to NOT buy several excellent sounding new developent site offers and programs since they were offered or designed only for WordPress and I was reluctant to add more WP sites no matter how good the offer sounds.

As a test, just ask a WordPress minisite developer, site designer or seller to help with some simple and basic modifications to your old html website and you will likely learn he/she can not do the job, no matter how basic it may be. Been there and done that. In fact, some of the things I wanted a bit of help or advice with from my WordPress developers or designers were real basic which I ended up doing myself, and I am far from being good with programming.

Some Domain Industry Players are Not Doing Well

Well known and veteran domainer Sahar Sarid’s Conceptualist.com website looks like it’s gone. The Conceptualist.com website owned by “Sahar Sarid” for a long tme recently became a simple DomainSponsor.com parking page but as of today it no longer resolves at all. That’s not too surprising overall since there seems to be a somewhat significant down-sizing or shakeout taking place in the industry.

Various industry firms, forums, domain meeting venues, auctions and individual domainers have left the business, are not doing well, or have domain-name related websites which are less successful and active vs a few years ago.

It’s probably mostly the result of large declines in pay-per-click advertising revenues, reduced market liquidity, the economy, combined with market saturation and too many participants (including lots of new players) competing and trying to grab their own piece of the pie.

Here is a link to an interesting 2007 article about Sahar Sarid, a DNJurnal.com Cover-Story.

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