Regarding wagering, gambling or in stocks and commodities financial markets trading situations, there is the issue of if there’s a continuous advance for say 9-days in a row does it mean by day #-10 of an uptrend the chance of one more up-day is just 10% (or any other number below 50%)? Or is the chance of one more up-day on day-10 of the trend 50-50, as many statisticians will say. Which scenario is valid?
One more easy to understand example is the coin flip one. If you flip a coin and it comes up tails say 9 straight times, does it mean the chance of the coin coming up tails again on coin flip number-10 is very slim, or is it still a 50-50 possibility of tails again on coin flip number 10? This question is also applicable with other consecutive moves of varying lengths of time, numbers or magnitude.
Knowing the correct answer to this old and puzzling question (and how to deal with it) can help a trader achieve success in their futures or stock market trading.
No, we are not talking about Apple Pie or Pizza Pie. π is the ratio of a circle’s circumference (c) vs the circle’s diameter (d). Regardless of the size of the circle, this ratio is always the same, 3.1415
During the year 2015, Pi-Day had special significance since 3-14-15 at 9:26:53-AM and again at 9:26:53-PM, with the date and time of day being the exact first ten-digits of π. It’s an exact second corresponding to all the digits of π. If you miss this one the next occurrence is exactly 100-years from today.
As a special note, 3.1415 is also a powerful ratio which can be used to trade the commodity futures and stock markets, especially when attempting to square the circle, and the squaring of price and time, as done by the legendary trader Mr. W.D. Gann.
August 28, 2011 by David
Filed under Blogs and Forums, Commodities Futures, Commodity Prices, Domain Name PPC, Domain Sales & Prices, Domain/Website Brokers, Domaining Related Sites, Domains & Websites, Featured Articles, Gold & Silver, Traffic & Revenue, Website & Domain Issues, Website Traffic Issues
Written by Frank Schilling
There is something about the end of summer that feels so very similar every year. The end of summer, of fun and frivolity always comes at the same time and echoes, like the lyrics from a Don Henley song. Aptly named “Labor Day” is like a starter’s pistol at a collective social race that has been programmed to begin through years of grade-school, college and university. Everyone around the world does it. Fighting the urge to be productive in September is like swimming against an unstoppable tide of human behavior.
A different more fearful tide of behavior continues to play out before us. People have come to the realization that the economies of the World are poised to get worse before they get better. Apparently printing more money to paper-over problems doesn’t work! I certainly believe that to be the case. Much of our economy today is powered by the Ponzi-scheme of government dollars recycled to the private sector, then recycled back to government. We have America, Greece, Portugal, Spain and others on food stamps. There are 20 million people in the US working for the Government, basically paying no tax. A government employee’s tax bill is just a return of cash back to those productive members of society who gave it to them in the first place. We have millions more on government social security and Medicare – all draining the system – taking more than they contribute. This is playing out in Europe, in America… everywhere.
I believe the US is facing difficulties, orders of magnitude greater than its recent financial downgrade. I noticed it in Malibu of all places, where for the first time I saw not only a dead-head sticker on a Cadillac, but also men, holding signs, begging for cash, at Cross-Creek and PCH (a celebrity studded shopping district North of LA)! There were many more regular-looking people and even women standing on corners throughout Los Angeles (not just the usual corners) with “need-help” signs in hand. The usual corners near freeway ramps had many more people standing on them, begging. Storefronts were closed and some stores had downsized even on Rodeo Drive.
here is a strange inflation and parallel deflation occurring. Certain people are charging more for goods and services and chalking it up to inflation, while earnings fall or disappear for the industry in which they participate. Millions of people like you and I have not come to terms with the difficulty ahead, wrongly thinking things will soon get better. There is a great re-organization upon us where whole industries are going away. Cash is being printed by governments to prop up unsustainable routines which just shouldn’t exist anymore. The no-confidence vote of the world’s productive members of society is reflected in the price of gold which has soared since I suggested you buy some back in 2004. Those who followed my lead nearly quintupled their money.
Gold will be 3500 – 6000 an ounce in a few years – either that or it will stay at 2000 and the DOW will fall to 5000. You can diarize that remark as you did my last. Gold of course is just another human behavior which men fight at their peril. Just a shiny metal without an intrinsic use… just like the tide of back to school, back to work mindset… and just like the rush for .com names which work just as well as .nets .info’s and .whateveryouwant. To return things to a domain context, no amount of new TLD’s are going to diminish the value of the human behavior gold standard – .com .. used.cars will not knock 20k in value off usedcars.com. It will increase the value of usedcars.com and set a permanent floor to its value. Make those words as you did my gold remarks in 2004, fight them at your peril.
Millions will be made and lost in the New TLD casino, on both sides of the table. We are creating a machine to enrich strangers, with a nebulous and unknown outcome for the participant. Most at the table agree it’s better to have tried and lost than to never have tried at all. I am not 100% sure I have the right answer for you, but it could be that the biggest winners at the new TLD table are those who buy the best SLD’s in each space. One recurring theme of all namespaces is that a TLD is only as good as the best SLD’s in it. If you buy the best second level names in each space you can do better than the registry itself. The .COM space is a good example. The top 10 million generic domain names in .com are worth more than Verisign. Only 5-10% of all the names registered in .COM are generic or meaningful in any way whatsoever.
Newer spaces such as .INFO have seen even fewer good names with perhaps 1% of the .INFO space being worthwhile to anyone whatsoever. I could see just a few thousand good names per string in almost all new TLDs – a collective few million worth anything whatsoever to anyone.. and the demand fall-off being almost TOTAL after that.. Unlike .com which has “some” low dollar demand for $250 multiword strings, there will be ZERO demand for longer strings in new extensions. Better to be the registrant of the best SLDs than to embrace the clerical misery and competitive marketing-hell of running the registry itself. Only the deepest pocketed and most brave should walk down this college fraternity hazing gauntlet or roll the dice at this table of monsterous uncertainty.
The Internet Traffic business is at its annual low as I write these words. People are gone fishing and the economy’s ad dollars sit on the shelf in-wait, soon to be applied to dormant adwords accounts. The back to school rush will see millions of new, refurbished and toolbar-free laptops fire up in unison. Type-in traffic will spike. Ad dollars will spike. We will build to a crest through January, propelled higher by the Black-Friday shopping season. It all kicks off with Labor Day and we will be there soon enough.
My hope is that the upstream ad-marketplaces (Yahoo and Google) will redistribute those returning dollars, pari-pasu, to the “partners” in the syndication engine-room, who are helping to move the ship forward. If they decide to skim off the top to “make their quarter” at the expense of those assisting below, I see genuine discord for the ad-marketplaces and difficulty keeping traffic next year. Like an abused spouse, Tina is two blows from stepping out of the limo and walking away from Ike once and for all. If the upstreams reap all the returning autumn gains at the syndication channel’s expense, I see platform abandonment ahead. I’ve heard it from too many partners and in too many quarters for this not to be the case.
More than in previous years, this is a season to be the squirrel – to gather nuts for the cold winter ahead. It’s a great autumn to “take the deal” and build a cash cushion to see you through in case this winter and the economy are colder than in previous years. I am advocating that all our partners save more of their earnings and build as big a cushion as they can muster. Higher renewal fees for .com names in January will bring discontentment in February as registrant margins get squeezed. Upstream partners will need to recalibrate their payouts to those partners doing the lifting downstream to compensate for the name renewal price increases, or risk losing their partners to alternative and unorthodox monetization implementations promising more revenues.
I expect that “pressure to pay more” on upstream ad markets will intensify because of the new TLD process. That process will put negative pressure on existing SLD name sales, which have been a crutch for low PPC rates over the past 2 years. Early next year, name buyers will wrongly question the value of existing .com/.net names against a barrage of press extolling the virtues and vices of new TLDs. The trifecta of a more difficult economy, lower traffic revenues from the Verisign price increase and lower name-sales due to the sideshow of the new-tld process will cause pressure on re-sales. It would be an Orwellian Animal-Farm moment to see Google and Yahoo crushing the numbers this February as the domain-industry plays the role of the horse in the engine room, turning the wheel for less and less revenue. I just don’t see that working any longer. So the takeaway for you all is to sell more of everything NOW and save it, then have that cushion so you can buy some courage to change partners or try unorthodox methods if you need to next March.
Despite that gloomy prognostication of what could come I remain hopeful that we have seen the collective low for traffic payments in 2011. The market and fixed expense reality simply dictates that type-in-traffic is worth more, and it is not equitable that any middleman takes a majority of a product which is produced. There are flat-rate shops buying traffic at higher levels. Walmart is a buyer. Target is buying traffic directly during the Black-Friday period. It’s a short curve of logic for those monster retailers to buy that traffic all year long. Walmart buys everything from Sundried Cranberry snacks and Garden hose directly through their buying center in Bentonville. I have been there and have seen that process in-action when I sold Walmart video game joysticks and gamepads 15 years ago. It is illogical that domainers wouldn’t eventually line-up at this same location with blocks of tens or hundreds of millions of unique monthly visits, if the existing paid-search marketplaces get so greedy that the model of selling to those marketplaces becomes unsustainable.
In the end, the method which we use to implement domain name type-in traffic is not under our control. Upstream traffic marketplaces need to decide how much volatility they want to tolerate in their keyword marketplaces and how much value they ascribe to it. A healthy channel simply dictates that those who generate the traffic, need to ride along in the success, otherwise the market becomes volatile and ultimately, undone.
September 25, 2010 by Anonymous
Filed under Commodities Futures, Domain Development, Domain Sales & Prices, Domains & Websites, Featured Articles, Financial Markets, Forex Market, Health & Beauty, Health & Wellness, Making Money, Marketing & Advertising, Personal Blog, Real Estate, Search Engine Optimization, Website Development
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At this time, there may not necessarily be targeted articles or comments about some of these subjects found within this blog, but with that said, we do run a diverse number of websites which are highly targeted to every keyword subject in each broad category. To locate the relevant sites with well targeted content about all the subjects, you can do a Webtrading Network search…
These are the 8 broad keyword categories covered by this blog and the sites in our Webtrading Network, with a widely covered and featured subject in each category highlighted in bold:
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Within the past 10-years of so retail traders and investors began to trade options using trading tools from large online stock brokers. That trend is well established. More recently, several mostly small stock brokers started to offer their stock market clients the opportunity to also trade commodity futures and forex trading to individual investors. Now according to recent estimations nearly one-half of the stock brokerage online brokers also allow their stock market accounts to trade futures markets or forex.
Now some of the larger brokerage firms and big international banks such as Deutsche Bank and others have also recently launched new futures trading, options trading and forex trading ability. Several large well-known traditional stock brokers have also started their own commodity futures trading divisions. More big stock market firms are expected to do the same in the near future as the trend is expected to grow.
This move toward futures trading from big banks and stock broker firms bodes very well for ever-increasing popularity and trading volume of new futures traders who mostly traded stocks and stock options in the past but now can also get involved in commodities and futures trading. This trend is evidence commodity futures and forex markets are becoming more widely understood, accepted and being recognized by the large main-stream stock market brokerage firms.
The basic information for this post came from LINK: Yahoo! Finance with extensive modification and enhanced content added by us providing additional relevant information. Any reviews or comments you have about main-stream stock brokers also allowing futures trading would be most appreciated.
This commodity futures trading methodology originates with the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) based school of commodities and stock market trading systems. It’s designed for part-time traders who have no time or inclination to always monitor the markets and closely watch their charts and quotes all day.
Most all commodity and stock market trading systems are trend following in one way or the other. However, the trend length may be long-term or short-term. My intention here is to locate commodities and stock market trading system’s to catch the longer swings, and filter out as many go nowhere whip-saws as possible, plus it can be easily monitored without the use of a computer and with a minimum of time spent studying quotes and charts.
The believed to be greatest trader of all-time Mr. William D. Gann (better known as W. D. Gann) inspired the use of swing charts as a filter for indicating trending market moves. Gann successfully used a combination of various time-frames, the most well known being 3-days, 7-days, and his quarterly swing-charts. Gann taught the now well-known traders adage about that longer time frames are the more reliable and powerful when a buy or sell signal was given.
My own analysis uses a 14-day trend reversal. How do you plot it? Simply mark on chart paper a vertical line when today’s price is higher than it was 14-days ago and keep drawing on up until today’s price is below that 14 days ago when you show the line coming down again. What could be simpler?
How then is a swing chart used? First, it gives a broad indication the market trend could continue in the direction of the current swing. Support and resistance levels are clearly shown and once the swing passes prior swing highs or goes under previous swing-lows, greater weight is given, W. D. Gann said new highs should be bought and new lows sold.
However, as with all long term trend following systems – first pick a market with prolonged trending actions. The foreign currency markets are personal favorite markets to trade – frequently embarking on long term trends with a minimum of whipsaw and sideways market price action.
Using a swing-chart to place my trades, the swing commodity trading system is always in the market. Over 3-years in a bull market and prior to a major bear run, the system has produced 48 trades, with a most impressive 2:1 win loose ratio. This producing a profit of $18,400 per futures contract. However the maximum drawdown was high at 19 cents – more than most traders could stomach.
By adding a simple rule of setting a maximum stop-loss of 2 cents, the maximum drawdown became 8 cents with profitability boosted to 49.5 cents or $30,937.5 per contract. After deducting $100 for slippage and commission per trade, this easy to monitor trade system shows how a simple technique can produce impressive profits.
Gann’s forecasts of price movements and his ability to multiply money was mind-boggling, not only for traders of that era but by any standard of today. For example, he would predict a stock (or commodity) trading at 145 would go to 164-7/8 but not to 165, and it would do exactly that.
William Delbert Gann – known world-wide as W. D. Gann, is a trading legend in the world of Stock & Commodity trading. Born June 6, 1878 in Lufkin, Texas. W.D. Gann started in commodity and stock-market trading in the year 1902. By 1908 Gann moved to New York City opening his own brokerage firm, W.D.Gann & Co., located at 18th & Broadway. After many decades of incredible trading success, W.D. Gann moved to Miami, Florida where he continued his writings and studies up until Mr. Gann’s death on June 14 1955.
W.D. Gann’s trading profits are estimated as high as $50,000,000. Keep in mind he traded in the first half of the century. Mr. Gann, in the presence of representatives of a major financial publication (the Wall Street Journal was later derived from it) Gann made 286 trades in 25-market days, on both the long and short side of the market. Of these 286 trades, and amazing 264 were profitable trades, which is an incredible 92% profitable transactions!
For more information about W. D. Gann and profitable trading, please visit webtrading’s
Gann Trading Course by clicking-on the picture below…
A Simple Way To Predict Market Turning Points (and impress your friends) – originally written by Bob Pelletier (President of CSI – CSIdata.com
This brief report is designed to advise those who may have an interest in systems, methods, or services which predict market turning points, such as stock market or forex market far into the future. If you have been solicited by any firm that does this, you may gain some important insight into this area by reading on. Whether you plan to purchase such a service, system or secret is your personal choice. CSI has no preference for one commercially available procedure over another. We simply wish to point out facts that may be helpful. Forex trading could be a wise financial investment for your future.
If I were to tell you to “Pick any date in the future, for any commodity or currency trading and I will show you the next turning point that will occur relative to that date.” You might think I’m crazy, or strongly doubt my claim. The truth is, that anyone can do this within an accuracy of, say, three days about 70% of the time, or within four days 80 to 90 per cent of the time.
The secret depends upon how one defines “turning points”. Suppose we define intermediate market swings or turning points to occur about 25 times per year, or twice per month. Since there are about 250 trading days per year, this allows for one turning point per 10 days. With a dart and a calendar into the future, the dart will hit some seven day time interval (the day hit plus or minus three days) each time it is thrown. If turning points occur, on the average, once every 10 days, then there is a 70% chance my dart will include a turning point within three days.
Additionally, if I knew that last week there was a definite low, my next turning point will be a peak. I’m not interested in 1997; I may not live that long. I can only make money if I can bet on the next immediate turning point for various cycle lengths.
There is not enough room in this Newsletter to show how market turning points can be predicted with more reliability, but it is possible to provide an unbiased estimate of the next peak and the next trough for each given predominate cycle period. Using a method which treats peaks independent of troughs can produce a non-regular period between peaks and troughs (a more realistic behavior) for future market cycles.
Before spending your hard-earned funds on any system, be careful to discover what you can do under purely chance conditions without it.
For more information about commodity futures trading, CSI market data or trading systems. please visit Webtrading.com or click-on the picture below…
We are continuing our ongoing work on various developed websites, including the relatively new corn trading system for commodity futures traders web site. Have just added several new dynamic features, including Amazon products and a cool new web toolbar to the bottom of the main page with some interesting features for the use of site visitors.
Any reviews or comments you have about commodity trading and our corn trading system web site would be most appreciated, which feedback we could also add to our site since we are looking for trading system personal feedback to expand the corn trading system site. You can visit it by going to Corn Trading system now, or clicking-on the picture below. Thank you.
The best stocks and commodities trader of all-time was without a doubt Mr. W.D. Gann, who certainly had the most interesting and mystical trading method too. This was reported about Mr Gann by the Ticker Magazine more than 100-years ago in the year 1909. During the summer of 1909 Willima D. Gann predicted the September Wheat contract trading on the Chicago Board of Trade would sell at a price of $1.20. This meant t it must touch $1.20 price before the end of the month of September. At 12:00 Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) Sept Wheat futures was selling under $1.08, and it looked as though Gann;s prediction would not be fulfilled.
Mr. Gann said, ‘If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.’ It’s now history September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at exactly $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, with its closing price being exactly $1.20”
So much for what Mr. Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself and others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before our representative: During the month of October, 1909, in 25 trading days, W.D. Gann made in the presence of our representative 286 trades in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. 264 of these transactions resulted in profits, with just 22 losses.
The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin. In our presence Mr. Gann sold US Steel common short at 94-7/8, saying it would not go to 95. It did not. On a drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gann bought Steel common at 86-1/4, saying it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.
We have seen him give in one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify. Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.
James R. Koene said, “The man who is right six times out of ten will make a fortune.” He is a trader who, without any attempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to be published, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades. Mr. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite trading and investment possibilities.
The complete William D. Gann article and other Gann articles are located here
According to our extensive hands-on futures market research, most successful day-trades last about 7-minutes. That assumes the trader is using a reasonable profit objective and exiting the trade as his profit target is hit.
Most losing day trades last approximately 45-minutes on average, when the trader finally exits out of the losing trade. That’s because the trader relies on hope once he sees the trade losing money. The trader hangs-on to the losing trade position relying on hope the market will change trend and turn in his favor. However, eventually the equity loss becomes too large which finally forces the trader to exit the trade and take a big loss rather than possibly lose even more money by hanging on even longer.
Are you wondering how this little known information can help you trade the markets profitably? The short answer is at the end of 7-minutes in the trade you might consider getting out regardless of the fact your profit target was not hit or you have a loss at that time, keeping in mind the more past 7-minutes it goes the less likely the trade will be a winner.
In the past we have posted several times about how financial market traders can use relatively simple chart patterns involving higher-swing-lows and lower-swing-highs to successfully trade the stocks & commodities markets, options market and with other investing.
I was doing research on this powerful trading concept this morning and was thinking the incredible real estate market decline could be a good example of how well it can work. Therefore, I went to Google’s “Insights For Search” and searched for “MLS Listing” which is a widely used real estate term by home buyers and sellers.
This is the explanation of how Insights For Search works from Google: “Google Insights for Search analyzes a portion of world-wide Google web-searches from all Google domains to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you’ve entered, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. You can choose to see data for select Google properties, including Web search, Images, Product search, and News search.”
The Google Chart displays the most perfect long-term examples I have ever seen visually depicting the great power of swing highs and swing lows. Starting in 2004 the chart shows a series of 8 important swing highs and 6 major swing-lows. Of particular importance is the Dec 06 swing low which broke the old support level established Dec 05 by that major 2005 swing low. Once that old support level was broken in Dec 06 it conformed a major real estate bear market. The market is believed to be the most severely depressed real estate market of all-time, especially in areas of the U.S. such as Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida.
If you were buying/selling real estate the chart clearly shows starting in the year 2005 you should have been selling (not buying) real estate based on the important July 2005 swing-low (which you knew about at the end of August 05, and was confirmed Nov of 2005 which was the month the previous major swing-low was confirmed. The next series of 4 major lower-swing-highs which were in mid-2006, mid-2007, and early-2008 and 2009 confirmed the bear market was ongoing and getting even stronger.
The strong nationwide real estate decline started in late summer of 2005 in several Sunbelt states at the end of Aug 05 (at least according to my knowledge and statistics). However, it got underway a little later in other areas of the nation and the media often reports the bear market started during the year 2006. In my opinion this chart is one of the most picture book perfect and accurate examples of how powerful swing-highs an swing-lows can be. It is something you should always look at and take into strong consideration while trading the markets or investing.
If there is one single trading technique which can best lead to profitable trading of stocks and commodities it would probably be the concept of using swing highs and swing lows, which is based on relatively simple chart patterns.
The swing high and swing low trading method is based on the observation if you look at a chart of any market you can easily see a down-market consists more of a series of lower swing highs and an up-market is mostly a series of higher swing lows (which swings are also known by the trading term pivot-points).
A swing-high is a high day (or price bar) with lower bars both in front and behind the high bar, thus forming a swing-high. This swing-high must also be under the prior swing-high which results in a lower swing high.
A swing-low is low day (or price bar) with higher bars both in front and behind the low bar), thus forming a swing-low. This swing-low must also be above the previous swing-low, which becomes a higher swing-low.
Buying or selling swing-lows and swing highs are used by many successful traders. This concept has been used by them for a very long time. Simply buying higher lows and selling lower highs by themselves can improve your overall trading results, especially when combined with other sound trading principles, including use of powerful drawdown minimizer logic stop-loss techniques.
Secrets of time durations of profitable & losing day-trades
Most successful daytrades last approximately 7-minutes. That typial trade duration assumes the trader is using a reasonable profit objective and exiting the trade as his profit objectivegets hit.
Most losing day trades last about 45-minutes. That’s because the trader relies on hope once he sees the trade looking like a failure. So he hangs on to the losing trade hoping it will turn, finally the loss becomes too big forcing him to exit the trade after being in the trade for a much longer time than originally anticipated, mostly due to relying on hope.
How many trades are needed for good statistical validity?
Lots of stocks and commodities traders ask how reliable their track-record may be as far as statistical validity goes. They may see some statistics on seasonal trades showing a market was mostly uptrending from April to June during 12 of the last 14 years, for example. The same traders may have experience with their own trading system showing 8 of 9 winners following say a 5-unit moving average crossing over a 9-unit moving average.
None of those scenarios are valid from a statistical validity standpoint. That’s because according to mathematical experts and statisticians a minimum of 30 occurrences are needed for good statistical validity. Please keep this in mind when evaluating a trading system or trader metholodology. Anything less than 30 samples will not be statistically accurate.
Does Friday’s Stock, Options or Futures Price Action Predict Monday’s Price Movement?
Is it possible a market trading methodology or trading system can be profitable based on a simple trading method involving Friday’s prices to successfuly predict the opening price on the following Monday?
This trading pattern does not appear every single week but it’s often reflected in the financial markets. And when it does appear, the following Monday’s prices tend to perform in a predictable manner, possibly leading to trading profits got you.
The trade setup uses the opening and closing prices on Friday to trend in the same direction. Interim price movements and trend directions are not relevant for this trading method.
Stocks and commodity price openings don’t need to go too far past the first several ticks, as a price-gap which quickly reverses is sufficient for the purposes of this trade method, but that’s the direction the closing price needs to trend.
Monday’s opening price is likely to first start trending in the same direction at the opening of tradding vs the pattern of the two prices Friday moving in the same direction as each other, then Monday’s open is likely to start trending in the same direction imediately after the opening occurs.
Do your own technical narket analysis of old market price action based in one-minute bar-charts or real-time tick-charts to view the price action and weekly market trading patterns. You will see it sometimes does not work all weeks but does appear to be better than 50% reliable.
This simple but interesting trading method may work particularly well involving commodity futures trading in addition to stock market and foreign exchange market trading of the Forex Futures markets. Iy has not been tested in the futures optiosn maret but there is a good chance it will work there too.
It involves buying so called higher swing-lows and selling so-named lower swing-highs. Also known as pivot-points. A definition of these swing-highs and swing-lows is appropriate here: A swing-high is a high bar with lower bars on both sides the bar. Whereas, a swing-low is a low bar with higher bars on both sides.
The more lower bars to the left of a swing-high the better. The more higher bars to the left of the swing-low the better. That makes them more significant and presumably more powerful swing points. However, only one bar on either side is still acceptable (but two or more to the left are usually stronger trade signals).
My trading methodology requires two (or more) consecutive swings, with the second one being a higher swing-low vs the preceding one for a buy. Alternately, the second swing-high needs to be to be a lower swing-high than the preceding swing for a sell signal.
The actual going long trade entry takes place on a buy-stop 2 ticks above the high price of the last bar (the bar following the swing-low pivot bar), for a buy. The short trade signal takes place on a sell-stop at 2-ticks under the lowest price of the last bar (the bar following the swing-high pivot bar), with a sell.
Your stop-loss order is placed 6-ticks under the lowest price of the last swing-low bar on a long trade. The short trade stop goes 6-ticks above the highest price of the last swing-high bar.
It’s possible for you to make excellent commodity futures profits from using this simple, but very effective trading methodology. Authored and Copyrights by David Green. All Rights Reserved.